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Lessons · D. Experimental Design

D.4 · Baseline logic: predict, verify, replicate

How do you prove a treatment worked with just one client and no control group? Single-case designs do it with a three-step logic: predict, verify, replicate. Once that clicks, a lot of design questions get much easier.

Key takeaway
In single-case designs, each person serves as their own control, and behavior is measured again and again in every condition. A stable baseline gives you a prediction. Showing that the untreated behavior would have stayed the same gives verification, for example through a return to baseline or untreated tiers that don't change. Producing the effect again gives replication. In an A-B-A-B design, the second A verifies and the second B replicates.

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